Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Giants CHW @ SF

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

26-24  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, May 23 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

20-31  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Richards
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Richards

#43 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Hentges
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Hentges

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Richards None-None 7.50 -- 2.0 1
Sam Hentges None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
7.50 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
73%
📊
GIANTS
27%
WHITE SOX --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CHICAGO
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
27% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 CHW @ SF 5 - 8
May 23, 2026 CHW @ SF 3 - 10
May 22, 2026 CHW @ SF 9 - 4
Jun 29, 2025 SF @ CHW 2 - 5
Jun 28, 2025 SF @ CHW 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
San Francisco SF
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.826 ▲
OPS
.706
1
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +17700.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5) +73.0% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Chicago: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +18.9% more
San Francisco: 13.2 vs Chicago: 11.1
Hits (L5) +14.1% more
San Francisco: 8.2 vs Chicago: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 5.0 3
SF Score 6.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.2 14.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 9.9 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 11.1 26.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CHW
SF
CHW
ML
49% 79-81
49% 81-86
53% 85-75
56% 94-73
ATS
62% 100-60
59% 99-68
52% 83-77
56% 93-74
TTL
55% 82-68-10
58% 96-69-2
46% 68-81-11
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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