CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
31-22 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
25-26 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Festa | None-None | 4.43 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.84 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.43
ERA
Ldr 1.84
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
68%
PHILLIES
32%
GUARDIANS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
CLE @ PHI
3 - 1
May 23, 2026
CLE @ PHI
0 - 3
May 22, 2026
CLE @ PHI
1 - 0
May 11, 2025
PHI @ CLE
3 - 0
May 10, 2025
PHI @ CLE
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.696
OPS
▲
.724
162
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
OPS (Season)
+2.8%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Cleveland: 23.9%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.0
0
PHI Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.3 / 6.7
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 11.1
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 11.6
7.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.6
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CLE
PHI
CLE
ML
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
49%
80-82
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
59%
95-67
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-76-9
43%
69-90-2
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