Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rangers @ Angels TEX @ LAA

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

24-26  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 23 • 10:05 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

18-34  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Alexander
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Alexander

#13 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Alexander None-None 1.90 -- 0.2 --
Jose Fermin None-None 3.18 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.90 Ldr ERA 3.18
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
59%
📊
ANGELS
41%
RANGERS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Los Angeles)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

10.6%

Angels Cover

89.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

TEX By 1-2 runs

5.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

2.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

13.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TEXAS
6
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -5.0
C
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 LAA @ TEX 3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 LAA @ TEX 3 - 0
Aug 21, 2026 LAA @ TEX 1 - 2
Aug 13, 2026 TEX @ LAA 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 TEX @ LAA 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.15 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.713 ▲
OPS
.679
183 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +46.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.6 vs Texas: 3.2
Errors (L5) +44.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs Texas: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +41.9% more
Los Angeles: 2.2 vs Texas: 1.6
Strikeouts (L5) +19.1% more
Los Angeles: 8.1 vs Texas: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 1.0 2
LAA Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 11.1 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.8 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 16.2 / 19.5 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.6 / 3.2 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TEX
LAA
TEX
ML
59% 96-66
53% 86-76
55% 89-73
57% 91-70
ATS
60% 97-65
57% 92-70
51% 82-80
61% 98-63
TTL
53% 83-74-5
53% 78-70-14
52% 82-75-5
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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