ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
26-24 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
29-20 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Suarez
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Suarez | None-None | 6.97 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 3.45 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.97
ERA
Ldr 3.45
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
PADRES
0%
ATHLETICS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Athletics
7
ATHLETICS
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Athletics (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
ATH @ SD
5 - 2
May 23, 2026
ATH @ SD
0 - 2
May 22, 2026
ATH @ SD
3 - 7
Apr 9, 2025
SD @ ATH
2 - 1
Apr 8, 2025
SD @ ATH
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.719
OPS
▲
.925
194
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+87.2% more
San Diego: 4.4
vs
Athletics: 2.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+39.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
San Diego: 1.1
vs
Athletics: 0.7
OPS (Season)
+20.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Athletics: 71.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.0
3
SD Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 8.0
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.7
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.6
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.0 / 11.4
16.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.4
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ATH
SD
ATH
ML
51%
85-83
59%
95-67
51%
85-82
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
91-77
52%
84-78
55%
92-75
50%
81-80
TTL
51%
82-80-6
54%
84-73-5
54%
86-74-6
42%
66-90-5
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