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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

25-26  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, May 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

35-16  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
@
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Miles Mikolas None-None 6.17 -- 5.0 3
Dylan Lee None-None 1.11 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
6.17 ERA Ldr 1.11
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
NATIONALS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Atlanta)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

30.9%

Braves Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
4
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATL @ WSH 9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 ATL @ WSH 5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 WSH @ ATL 3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.744
OPS
▲ .757
210 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +78.3% more
Atlanta: 1.9 vs Washington: 1.1
Walks (L5) +41.5% more
Atlanta: 2.6 vs Washington: 1.8
Total Bases (L5) +27.0% more
Atlanta: 17.8 vs Washington: 14.0
Hits (L5) +22.5% more
Atlanta: 10.0 vs Washington: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 4
ATL Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.0 / 8.2 11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 9.9 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.8 / 14.0 12.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.6 / 1.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46% 77-90
57% 92-69
54% 90-78
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 96-71
58% 93-68
52% 87-81
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 83-73-11
50% 77-78-6
49% 76-80-11
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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