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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

26-24  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 22 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

23-27  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Bubba Chandler
STARTING PITCHER

Bubba Chandler

#36 | Starting Pitcher
@
Louis Varland
STARTING PITCHER

Louis Varland

#77 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bubba Chandler None-None 4.60 -- 5.0 11
Louis Varland None-None 0.33 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.60 ERA Ldr 0.33
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
11 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
BLUE JAYS
0%
PIRATES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

40.1%

Blue Jays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PITTSBURGH
6
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 PIT @ TOR 4 - 1
May 23, 2026 PIT @ TOR 2 - 5
May 22, 2026 PIT @ TOR 2 - 6
Aug 20, 2025 TOR @ PIT 1 - 2
Aug 19, 2025 TOR @ PIT 7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.734 ▲
OPS
.692
186 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +25.4% more
Toronto: 11.3 vs Pittsburgh: 9.0
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Toronto: 0.3 vs Pittsburgh: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +37.3% more
Pittsburgh: 1.1 vs Toronto: 0.7
Hits (L5) +29.0% more
Pittsburgh: 10.7 vs Toronto: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.0 2
TOR Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 7.6 / 10.7 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.3 / 9.0 11.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 15.7 9.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.7 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PIT
TOR
PIT
ML
46% 74-87
52% 82-77
50% 80-80
52% 85-78
ATS
56% 90-71
54% 86-73
49% 79-81
50% 81-82
TTL
51% 80-76-5
47% 72-81-6
45% 70-85-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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