HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
20-31 | Road
4
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
29-21 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Webb
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan King | None-None | 2.82 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
| Jacob Webb | None-None | 2.91 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.82 Ldr
ERA
2.91
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
CUBS
100%
ASTROS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
HOU @ CHC
8 - 5
May 23, 2026
HOU @ CHC
3 - 0
May 22, 2026
HOU @ CHC
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2025
CHC @ HOU
0 - 2
Jun 28, 2025
CHC @ HOU
12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
3.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.169
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.229
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.354
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.582
▲
OPS
.374
4
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+83.3% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+20.9%
Houston: 35.4%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
OPS (Season)
+20.8%
Houston: 58.2%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+4.0%
Houston: 16.9%
vs
Chicago: 12.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.0
4
CHC Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
5.7 / 5.5
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 5.9
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.6 / 7.7
8.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.0
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
HOU
CHC
HOU
ML
58%
93-68
50%
81-82
51%
82-79
47%
77-87
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
91-72
47%
75-85-1
55%
90-74
TTL
52%
81-74-6
45%
70-84-9
46%
72-83-6
45%
69-86-9
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