Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Red Sox MIN @ BOS

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

23-27  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, May 22 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

22-27  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Yoendrys Gomez
STARTING PITCHER

Yoendrys Gomez

#94 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyron Guerrero
STARTING PITCHER

Tyron Guerrero

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yoendrys Gomez None-None 4.56 -- 1.0 1
Tyron Guerrero None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.56 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
📊
RED SOX
0%
TWINS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Red Sox Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
MINNESOTA
6
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 MIN @ BOS 6 - 5
May 23, 2026 MIN @ BOS 4 - 2
May 22, 2026 MIN @ BOS 8 - 6
Apr 15, 2026 BOS @ MIN 9 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 BOS @ MIN 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720 ▲
OPS
.409
187 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +47.0% more
Boston: 10.6 vs Minnesota: 7.2
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Boston: 0.5 vs Minnesota: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +29.5% more
Boston: 16.9 vs Minnesota: 13.1
Walks (L5) +8.7% more
Boston: 2.1 vs Minnesota: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.0 8
BOS Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 2.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.6 / 7.2 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 9.5 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 13.1 10.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.1 / 2.0 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIN
BOS
MIN
ML
50% 80-80
52% 84-78
47% 76-87
50% 80-81
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
48% 79-84
59% 95-66
TTL
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-9
47% 74-83-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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