TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
33-15 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
30-21 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| David Bednar | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.53 Ldr
ERA
4.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
YANKEES
0%
RAYS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.728
OPS
▲
1.041
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+98.2% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.2%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+12.1%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
Batting Avg (Season)
+11.7%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
4
NYY Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.7 / 8.9
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 8.7
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
9.3 / 15.0
19.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.8
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
97-66
53%
86-76
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
81-73-7
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-75-10
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