OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Road
123
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
SPURS
0%
THUNDER
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
OKC By 1-7 points
23.0%
OKC By 8-14 points
12.2%
SA By 1-7 points
26.8%
SA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o218.5
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim
u218.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+82.5% more
San Antonio: 7.6
vs
Oklahoma City: 4.2
Turnovers (L5)
+53.9% more
San Antonio: 18.7
vs
Oklahoma City: 12.1
Rebounding (L5)
+29.9% more
San Antonio: 51.4
vs
Oklahoma City: 39.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
San Antonio: 85.7%
vs
Oklahoma City: 81.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
110.0
123
SA Score
112.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 38.0
32.0 / 45.0
Assists
25.0 / 28.0
26.0 / 29.0
Blocks
7.6 / 4.2
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 48.6
43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
85.7 / 81.8
82.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
51.4 / 39.6
37.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.3 / 12.6
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
18.7 / 12.1
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
OKC
SA
OKC
ML
60%
111-73
70%
80-34
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
107-76-1
73%
83-30-1
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
TTL
74%
134-47-3
67%
76-38
100%
105-0
100%
95-0
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