Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Diamondbacks COL @ ARI

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

19-31  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, May 21 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

25-23  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 4.07 -- 0.2 1
Kevin Ginkel None-None 3.20 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.07 ERA Ldr 3.20
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
ROCKIES --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
COLORADO
7
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
8
COLORADO
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +107.0% more
Arizona: 1.2 vs Colorado: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +87.8% more
Arizona: 16.9 vs Colorado: 9.0
Hits (L5) +53.9% more
Arizona: 10.5 vs Colorado: 6.8
Walks (L5) +53.5% more
Colorado: 3.8 vs Arizona: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 6.0 1
ARI Score 7.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.5 / 6.8 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 7.0 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 9.0 4.0 / 7.0
Walks 1.8 / 3.8 2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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