NEW YORK
METSNYM
21-28 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
25-25 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 4.32 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.32
ERA
Ldr 1.80
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
NATIONALS
0%
METS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.8%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Washington
7
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.705
OPS
▲
.744
204
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.0% more
Washington: 8.9
vs
New York: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+17.6% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+3.9%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Home Runs (Season)
+2.9% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
New York: 204.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.0
2
WSH Score
6.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.0
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 9.8
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.5
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.5 / 17.2
7.0 / 6.0
Walks
1.7 / 4.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57%
92-69
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
55%
80-66-13
42%
65-90-6
51%
74-72-13
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