Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Cardinals PIT @ STL

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

25-24  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, May 21 • 1:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

28-20  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Mason Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Montgomery

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Montgomery None-None 3.79 -- 1.0 --
Matt Svanson None-None 9.12 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.79 Ldr ERA 9.12
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
PIRATES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 STL @ PIT 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734 ▲
OPS
.691
186 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +50.0% more
St. Louis: 1.2 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Errors (L5) +42.0% more
St. Louis: 0.6 vs Pittsburgh: 0.2
Walks (L5) +13.4% more
St. Louis: 3.4 vs Pittsburgh: 3.0
Hits (L5) +34.4% more
Pittsburgh: 11.0 vs St. Louis: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.0 6
STL Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 11.0 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.0 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 14.5 12.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53% 85-74
52% 82-77
52% 84-77
52% 85-78
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 86-73
53% 85-76
50% 81-82
TTL
46% 68-81-10
47% 72-81-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 5 hours, 37 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 5 hours, 47 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 5 hours, 55 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 11 hours, 32 minutes ago