TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
22-27 | Road
2
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
30-20 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Blackburn
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 1.54 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Paul Blackburn | None-None | 3.22 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.54 Ldr
ERA
3.22
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
YANKEES
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.692
OPS
▲
1.041
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+125.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+57.0% more
New York: 1.1
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+21.3%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+13.7%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Toronto: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.0
2
NYY Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 7.8
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.9
10.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 10.5
4.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47%
76-85
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
90-71
53%
86-76
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-72-7
45%
70-85-5
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