Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

30-19  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, May 20 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

29-19  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Will Klein
STARTING PITCHER

Will Klein

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Klein None-None 2.21 -- 1.0 1
Yuki Matsui None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.21 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

30.9%

Padres Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +91.0% more
San Diego: 1.0 vs Los Angeles: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +38.9% more
San Diego: 1.6 vs Los Angeles: 1.1
Walks (L5) +29.5% more
San Diego: 3.6 vs Los Angeles: 2.8
Runs per Game (Season) +21.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.0 4
SD Score 5.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.5 / 7.2 5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.1 3.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 12.3 5.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.8 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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