NEW YORK
METSNYM
21-27 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
24-25 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Thornton
#49 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Thornton | None-None | 8.31 | -- | 4.1 | 3 |
| Andrew Alvarez | None-None | 3.18 | -- | 4.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
8.31
ERA
Ldr 3.18
--
WHIP
--
4.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
NATIONALS
0%
METS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.705
OPS
▲
.744
204
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+17.6% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
New York: 4.3
Errors (L5)
+9.5% more
Washington: 1.2
vs
New York: 1.1
OPS (Season)
+3.9%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Home Runs (Season)
+2.9% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
New York: 204.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.0
4
WSH Score
6.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.7 / 11.2
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 8.8
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 18.8
19.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.1 / 5.1
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57%
92-69
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
55%
80-66-13
42%
65-90-6
51%
74-72-13
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