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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

24-24  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, May 20 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

28-19  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Yohan Ramirez
STARTING PITCHER

Yohan Ramirez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yohan Ramirez None-None 3.54 -- 1.0 1
Matt Svanson None-None 9.64 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.54 Ldr ERA 9.64
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
PIRATES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (St. Louis)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

30.9%

Cardinals Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

7.8%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
PITTSBURGH
6
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 STL @ PIT 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734 ▲
OPS
.691
186 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +125.0% more
St. Louis: 1.7 vs Pittsburgh: 0.5
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
St. Louis: 1.0 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +20.3% more
St. Louis: 14.2 vs Pittsburgh: 11.8
Home Runs (Season) +10.2% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.0 7
STL Score 6.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 9.0 5.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.9 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 11.8 6.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53% 85-74
52% 82-77
52% 84-77
52% 85-78
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 86-73
53% 85-76
50% 81-82
TTL
46% 68-81-10
47% 72-81-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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