Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

20-29  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 20 • 3:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

24-23  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Sam Hentges
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Hentges

#31 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandon Pfaadt
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Pfaadt

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Hentges None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 --
Brandon Pfaadt None-None 5.61 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 5.61
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +23.9% more
Arizona: 11.3 vs San Francisco: 9.1
Strikeouts (L5) +22.6% more
Arizona: 6.8 vs San Francisco: 5.5
Total Bases (L5) +11.5% more
Arizona: 18.4 vs San Francisco: 16.5
Runs per Game (Season) +10.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.0 3
ARI Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.3 / 9.1 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 5.5 5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 18.4 / 16.5 14.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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