BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
21-27 | Road
4
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
20-29 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Lange
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.51 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Alex Lange | None-None | 5.09 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.51 Ldr
ERA
5.09
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
ROYALS
0%
RED SOX
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
BOS By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
7.8%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
KC @ BOS
1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
KC @ BOS
1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026
KC @ BOS
3 - 2
May 20, 2026
BOS @ KC
4 - 3
May 19, 2026
BOS @ KC
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Kansas City
KC
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.718
2
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8400.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+326.0% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5
vs
Boston: 0.2
OPS (Season)
+30.9%
Kansas City: 71.8%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
4
KC Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.9 / 10.4
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 9.4
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.0 / 15.9
15.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.7
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BOS
KC
BOS
ML
55%
89-72
50%
80-80
56%
90-70
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-67
58%
93-67
48%
79-84
TTL
58%
90-64-7
46%
72-83-5
54%
83-70-7
47%
74-83-6
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