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SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

62-20  |  Road

113
FINAL
Wed, May 20 • 8:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
SPURS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oklahoma City)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

46.0%

Thunder Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

SA By 1-7 points

24.3%

SA By 8-14 points

13.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
110
SAN ANTONIO
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
105
SAN ANTONIO
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o215.5 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim u215.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 OKC @ SA 116 - 104
May 30, 2026 SA @ OKC 111 - 103
May 28, 2026 OKC @ SA 91 - 118
May 26, 2026 SA @ OKC 114 - 127
May 24, 2026 OKC @ SA 82 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.9% more
Oklahoma City: 11.9 vs San Antonio: 8.5
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Oklahoma City: 11.9 vs San Antonio: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Oklahoma City: 39.0% vs San Antonio: 35.1%
Blocks (L5) +43.5% more
San Antonio: 8.4 vs Oklahoma City: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 110.0 113
OKC Score 111.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 35.1 36.0 / 40.0
Assists 25.0 / 26.5 34.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.8 / 8.4 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 48.8 48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 83.2 / 84.5 79.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 54.6 41.0 / 45.0
Steals 11.9 / 8.5 14.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 17.5 10.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -3.5
OKC Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -3.5
OKC Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.3
OKC
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -15.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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