Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

20-28  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, May 19 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

23-23  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Keaton Winn

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jonathan Loaisiga
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Loaisiga

#43 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Keaton Winn None-None 2.21 -- 1.0 1
Jonathan Loaisiga None-None 2.79 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.21 Ldr ERA 2.79
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

30.9%

Diamondbacks Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

7.8%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SAN FRANCISCO
8
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +23.5% more
Arizona: 7.2 vs San Francisco: 5.8
Hits (L5) +23.3% more
Arizona: 11.9 vs San Francisco: 9.7
Total Bases (L5) +14.0% more
Arizona: 19.1 vs San Francisco: 16.7
Runs per Game (Season) +10.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 6.0 3
ARI Score 8.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 11.9 / 9.7 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 5.8 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 19.1 / 16.7 17.0 / 16.0
Walks 1.7 / 3.1 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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