CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
27-22 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
20-28 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.78 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.78 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
0%
TIGERS
100%
GUARDIANS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
19.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
10.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+67.3% more
Cleveland: 2.1
vs
Detroit: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+48.1% more
Cleveland: 17.5
vs
Detroit: 9.1
Hits (L5)
+32.3% more
Cleveland: 9.2
vs
Detroit: 6.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.4% more
Cleveland: 8.2
vs
Detroit: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
6.0
4
DET Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.3 / 9.2
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 2.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.2
4.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
9.1 / 17.5
10.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.2
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CLE
DET
CLE
ML
54%
86-73
54%
87-74
54%
87-73
49%
80-82
ATS
64%
101-58
58%
93-68
57%
91-69
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
69-81-9
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-10
43%
69-90-2
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