Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Cardinals PIT @ STL

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

24-23  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, May 19 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

27-19  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Mason Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Montgomery

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
George Soriano
STARTING PITCHER

George Soriano

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Montgomery None-None 4.00 -- -- --
George Soriano None-None 3.48 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.00 ERA Ldr 3.48
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
PIRATES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 STL @ PIT 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734 ▲
OPS
.691
186 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +30.6% more
Pittsburgh: 9.9 vs St. Louis: 6.9
Home Runs (L5) +13.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.7 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +10.2% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season) +6.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.0 6
STL Score 5.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 7.5 9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.7 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.9 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 11.1 21.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.2 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53% 85-74
52% 82-77
52% 84-77
52% 85-78
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 86-73
53% 85-76
50% 81-82
TTL
46% 68-81-10
47% 72-81-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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