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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

19-30  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, May 19 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

22-26  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Abreu
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Abreu

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Travis Adams
STARTING PITCHER

Travis Adams

#45 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Abreu None-None 7.63 -- 0.1 --
Travis Adams None-None 4.76 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
7.63 ERA Ldr 4.76
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
📊
TWINS
100%
ASTROS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

40.1%

Twins Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.3%

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
HOUSTON
4
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 MIN @ HOU 8 - 3
Jun 30, 2026 MIN @ HOU 4 - 6
Jun 29, 2026 MIN @ HOU 5 - 4
May 20, 2026 HOU @ MIN 1 - 4
May 19, 2026 HOU @ MIN 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Minnesota MIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.582
OPS
▲ .720
4
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4575.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +52.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Houston: 3.0
Total Bases (L5) +49.8% more
Minnesota: 13.7 vs Houston: 9.1
Home Runs (L5) +39.0% more
Minnesota: 1.2 vs Houston: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.0 2
MIN Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 6.1 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 7.1 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 9.1 12.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.4 / 4.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
HOU
MIN
HOU
ML
52% 84-78
50% 81-82
50% 80-81
47% 77-87
ATS
59% 95-67
56% 91-72
59% 95-66
55% 90-74
TTL
51% 78-75-9
45% 70-84-9
53% 80-72-9
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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