Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Nationals NYM @ WSH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

21-26  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, May 19 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

23-25  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Duarte
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Duarte

#54 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nasim Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Nasim Nunez

#26 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Duarte None-None 0.00 -- 2.1 1
Nasim Nunez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
NATIONALS
0%
METS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

30.9%

Nationals Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

7.8%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.705
OPS
▲ .744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +116.0% more
Washington: 1.7 vs New York: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +17.6% more
Washington: 5.1 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +3.9%
Washington: 74.4% vs New York: 70.5%
Home Runs (Season) +2.9% more
Washington: 210.0 vs New York: 204.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 2.0 6
WSH Score 4.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.0 / 11.8 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 10.1 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.1 / 18.2 16.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.2 / 6.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57% 92-69
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-66
57% 91-70
49% 78-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 80-66-13
42% 65-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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