Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

20-27  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, May 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

22-23  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandyn Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Brandyn Garcia

#55 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
JT Brubaker None-None 3.80 -- 1.2 1
Brandyn Garcia None-None 1.35 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.80 ERA Ldr 1.35
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

ARI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +43.0% more
San Francisco: 3.7 vs Arizona: 2.1
Home Runs (L5) +36.4% more
San Francisco: 1.7 vs Arizona: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +16.1% more
San Francisco: 18.6 vs Arizona: 15.6
Home Runs (Season) +6.7% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 6.0 2
ARI Score 5.0 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 9.9 / 10.5 16.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 7.2 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 18.6 26.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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