NEW YORK
METSNYM
20-26 | Road
16
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
23-24 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Scott
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott | None-None | 4.12 | -- | 4.0 | 5 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 2.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.12
ERA
Ldr 2.00
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
0%
NATIONALS
100%
METS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.4%
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
New York
6
NEW YORK
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.705
OPS
▲
.744
204
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+48.4% more
New York: 5.4
vs
Washington: 2.8
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
New York: 0.9
vs
Washington: 0.6
Home Runs (L5)
+59.4% more
Washington: 1.6
vs
New York: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+24.7% more
Washington: 16.6
vs
New York: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.0
16
WSH Score
3.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.9
4.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.7
12.0 / 18.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 10.2
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 13.3
18.0 / 28.0
Walks
2.8 / 5.4
4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57%
92-69
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
55%
80-66-13
42%
65-90-6
51%
74-72-13
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