HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
19-29 | Road
3
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
21-26 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Blubaugh
#69 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Rogers
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Blubaugh | None-None | 4.71 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Taylor Rogers | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.71
ERA
Ldr 3.86
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
TWINS
100%
ASTROS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
MIN @ HOU
8 - 3
Jun 30, 2026
MIN @ HOU
4 - 6
Jun 29, 2026
MIN @ HOU
5 - 4
May 20, 2026
HOU @ MIN
1 - 4
May 19, 2026
HOU @ MIN
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Minnesota
MIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.582
OPS
▲
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+33.1% more
Houston: 1.3
vs
Minnesota: 0.9
Walks (L5)
+18.9% more
Houston: 4.4
vs
Minnesota: 3.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.1% more
Houston: 7.7
vs
Minnesota: 7.1
Home Runs (Season)
+4575.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
6.0
3
MIN Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 5.6
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 7.7
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 10.2
16.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.6 / 4.4
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
HOU
MIN
HOU
ML
52%
84-78
50%
81-82
50%
80-81
47%
77-87
ATS
59%
95-67
56%
91-72
59%
95-66
55%
90-74
TTL
51%
78-75-9
45%
70-84-9
53%
80-72-9
45%
69-86-9
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