Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Royals BOS @ KC

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

19-27  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, May 18 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

20-27  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 0.54 -- 1.0 1
Steven Cruz None-None 7.45 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.54 Ldr ERA 7.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
📊
ROYALS
100%
RED SOX --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

69.1%

Royals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.4%

KC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
BOSTON
3
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .718
2
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +10.8% more
Boston: 7.1 vs Kansas City: 6.3
Walks (L5) +9.4% more
Boston: 3.3 vs Kansas City: 3.0
Home Runs (Season) +8400.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +326.0% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.0 3
KC Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 7.7 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 7.1 8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 12.5 9.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.3 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BOS
KC
BOS
ML
55% 89-72
50% 80-80
56% 90-70
47% 76-87
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
58% 93-67
48% 79-84
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 72-83-5
54% 83-70-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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