BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
20-26 | Road
7
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
23-23 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Miles Mikolas
#36 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.45 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Miles Mikolas | None-None | 6.91 | -- | 5.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.45 Ldr
ERA
6.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
NATIONALS
100%
ORIOLES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
7
BALTIMORE
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o10.0
Push
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
u10.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
WSH @ BAL
6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026
WSH @ BAL
4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026
WSH @ BAL
1 - 3
May 17, 2026
BAL @ WSH
7 - 3
May 16, 2026
BAL @ WSH
3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Washington
WSH
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.711
OPS
▲
.744
199
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+9.4% more
Baltimore: 4.0
vs
Washington: 3.7
Home Runs (L5)
+98.0% more
Washington: 1.9
vs
Baltimore: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+57.5% more
Washington: 9.9
vs
Baltimore: 6.3
Total Bases (L5)
+47.0% more
Washington: 17.9
vs
Baltimore: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
7.0
7
WSH Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.9
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.9
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 6.3
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 12.2
14.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.7 / 4.0
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BAL
WSH
BAL
ML
57%
92-69
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
ATS
58%
93-68
61%
95-60-1
57%
91-70
57%
90-68-1
TTL
50%
77-78-6
54%
81-70-5
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-75-6
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