PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
23-23 | Road
6
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
24-22 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Bowlan
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bowlan | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 3.67 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.91
ERA
Ldr 3.67
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
PIRATES
0%
PHILLIES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
7
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
11 - 7
May 17, 2026
PHI @ PIT
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.724
OPS
▲
.734
3
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+187.4% more
Pittsburgh: 4.3
vs
Philadelphia: 1.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+35.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.7
vs
Philadelphia: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.0
6
PIT Score
7.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.1
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 10.9
13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 14.8
6.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.3 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
52%
82-77
59%
97-67
52%
85-78
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
86-73
65%
107-57
50%
81-82
51%
83-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
57%
88-67-9
50%
79-78-6
51%
78-76-9
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