Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Athletics SF @ ATH

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

19-27  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, May 17 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

23-22  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Keaton Winn

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Suarez

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Keaton Winn None-None 2.33 -- 1.0 1
Jose Suarez None-None 7.08 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.33 Ldr ERA 7.08
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
GIANTS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Athletics)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

15.9%

Athletics Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

SF By 1-2 runs

7.8%

SF By 3-4 runs

3.5%

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
7
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 ATH @ SF 9 - 6
Jun 24, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 2
Jun 23, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 SF @ ATH 10 - 1
May 16, 2026 SF @ ATH 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .719
178
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +95.0% more
Athletics: 1.2 vs San Francisco: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +9.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.4% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.3%
Athletics: 71.9% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.0 10
ATH Score 7.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.3 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 9.8 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 7.8 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 17.9 6.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.1 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
SF
ATH
SF
ML
59% 95-67
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
ATS
52% 84-78
62% 100-60
50% 81-80
52% 83-77
TTL
54% 84-73-5
55% 82-68-10
42% 66-90-5
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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