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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

19-27  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, May 17 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

27-18  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Justin Bruihl
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Bruihl

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 3.26 -- 1.0 --
Justin Bruihl None-None 5.03 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.26 Ldr ERA 5.03
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
ROYALS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
KANSAS CITY
6
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 STL @ KC 12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026 STL @ KC 5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026 STL @ KC 6 - 14
May 17, 2026 KC @ STL 2 - 0
May 16, 2026 KC @ STL 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.718 ▲
OPS
.691
170 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +25.8% more
St. Louis: 9.4 vs Kansas City: 7.5
Home Runs (L5) +21.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +18.8% more
St. Louis: 13.6 vs Kansas City: 11.4
Walks (L5) +16.3% more
St. Louis: 4.1 vs Kansas City: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 5.0 2
STL Score 6.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 7.5 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 7.4 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 11.4 5.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
KC
STL
KC
ML
53% 85-74
55% 89-72
52% 84-77
56% 90-70
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 91-70
53% 85-76
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 68-81-10
58% 90-64-7
50% 76-75-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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