Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Tigers TOR @ DET

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

20-25  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, May 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

20-26  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Rogers

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Flaherty
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Flaherty

#9 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Rogers None-None 1.69 -- 1.0 1
Jack Flaherty None-None 5.77 -- 6.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
1.69 Ldr ERA 5.77
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
BLUE JAYS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Detroit)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

22.7%

Tigers Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

TOR By 1-2 runs

10.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

5.4%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.4%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TORONTO
5
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
7
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 DET @ TOR 1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 DET @ TOR 10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026 DET @ TOR 6 - 5
May 17, 2026 TOR @ DET 4 - 1
May 16, 2026 TOR @ DET 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.692
OPS
▲ .720
152
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +26.0% more
Detroit: 7.3 vs Toronto: 5.8
Home Runs (Season) +19.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Total Bases (L5) +13.0% more
Detroit: 10.7 vs Toronto: 9.5
Runs per Game (Season) +11.5% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.0 4
DET Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 5.8 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 10.6 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 9.5 6.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
54% 86-73
46% 74-87
54% 87-73
50% 80-80
ATS
64% 101-58
56% 90-71
57% 91-69
49% 79-81
TTL
46% 69-81-9
51% 80-76-5
46% 69-81-10
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 18 hours, 37 minutes ago
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
kesq 18 hours, 58 minutes ago
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
headtopics 19 hours, 2 minutes ago
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown
yahoo 1 day ago
LSU's Defense Dominates Early, But Real Test Awaits
si 1 day, 1 hour ago