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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

52-30  |  Road

125
FINAL
Sun, May 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

60-22  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
CAVALIERS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

78.8%

Pistons Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

25.3%

CLE By 8-14 points

26.2%

DET By 1-7 points

13.7%

DET By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
119
CLEVELAND
111
DETROIT
Simulated Score
102
CLEVELAND
115
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Pistons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o205.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u205.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 17, 2026 CLE @ DET 125 - 94
May 15, 2026 DET @ CLE 115 - 94
May 13, 2026 CLE @ DET 117 - 113
May 11, 2026 DET @ CLE 103 - 112
May 9, 2026 DET @ CLE 109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.5% more
Detroit: 9.7 vs Cleveland: 7.7
Assists (L5) +21.0% more
Detroit: 24.7 vs Cleveland: 20.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Detroit: 40.2% vs Cleveland: 34.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Detroit: 48.3% vs Cleveland: 44.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 119.0 125
DET Score 111.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 34.9 31.0 / 32.0
Assists 24.7 / 20.4 21.0 / 31.0
Blocks 6.2 / 5.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 44.0 35.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 77.7 76.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 41.2 / 39.8 41.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.7 / 7.7 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 17.3 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -4.5
DET Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -4.5
DET Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +5.8
DET
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CLE
DET
CLE
ML
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
100% 3-0
ATS
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
TTL
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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