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SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

62-20  |  Road

122
FINAL
Mon, May 18 • 8:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
SPURS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Oklahoma City)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

15.9%

Thunder Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

SA By 1-7 points

10.7%

SA By 8-14 points

3.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

23.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
108
SAN ANTONIO
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
SAN ANTONIO
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o220.5 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim u220.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 OKC @ SA 116 - 104
May 30, 2026 SA @ OKC 111 - 103
May 28, 2026 OKC @ SA 91 - 118
May 26, 2026 SA @ OKC 114 - 127
May 24, 2026 OKC @ SA 82 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +51.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.9 vs San Antonio: 7.2
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Oklahoma City: 11.9 vs San Antonio: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Oklahoma City: 82.8% vs San Antonio: 80.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Oklahoma City: 39.5% vs San Antonio: 37.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 108.0 122
OKC Score 118.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 37.7 38.0 / 30.0
Assists 25.0 / 27.2 25.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.1 / 9.1 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 51.8 41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 82.8 / 80.2 84.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 51.5 40.0 / 61.0
Steals 10.9 / 7.2 14.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 14.7 15.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -3.5
OKC Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -3.5
OKC Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.3
OKC
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -15.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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