SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Road
122
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
THUNDER
0%
SPURS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
SA By 1-7 points
10.7%
SA By 8-14 points
3.3%
OKC By 1-7 points
23.0%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
108
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
San Antonio
108
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (-7)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.5
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u220.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+51.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.9
vs
San Antonio: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Oklahoma City: 82.8%
vs
San Antonio: 80.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Oklahoma City: 39.5%
vs
San Antonio: 37.7%
Blocks (L5)
+65.8% more
San Antonio: 9.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
108.0
122
OKC Score
118.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.5 / 37.7
38.0 / 30.0
Assists
25.0 / 27.2
25.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.1 / 9.1
8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
52.7 / 51.8
41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
82.8 / 80.2
84.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 51.5
40.0 / 61.0
Steals
10.9 / 7.2
14.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 14.7
15.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
70%
80-34
60%
111-73
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
107-76-1
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
TTL
67%
76-38
74%
134-47-3
100%
95-0
100%
105-0
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