Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Mariners SD @ SEA

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

26-18  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, May 16 • 7:15 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

22-24  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Logan Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Gilbert

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 3.29 -- 1.0 --
Logan Gilbert None-None 4.45 -- 6.2 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.29 Ldr ERA 4.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
📊
MARINERS
0%
PADRES --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

40.1%

Mariners Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 17, 2026 SD @ SEA 8 - 3
May 16, 2026 SD @ SEA 7 - 4
May 15, 2026 SD @ SEA 2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026 SEA @ SD 2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 SEA @ SD 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Seattle SEA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.925 ▲
OPS
.693
4
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4450.0% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +67.0% more
Seattle: 1.1 vs San Diego: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +46.7% more
Seattle: 14.0 vs San Diego: 9.6
Hits (L5) +18.2% more
Seattle: 8.4 vs San Diego: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.0 7
SEA Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.1 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.2 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 9.6 11.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.5 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SD
SEA
SD
ML
50% 81-81
51% 85-83
52% 85-77
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 98-64
54% 91-77
59% 95-67
55% 92-75
TTL
56% 85-67-10
51% 82-80-6
53% 81-71-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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