TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
19-25 | Road
2
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
20-25 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.38 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.38 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
0%
TIGERS
100%
BLUE JAYS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.4%
DET By 1-2 runs
13.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
DET @ TOR
1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
DET @ TOR
10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026
DET @ TOR
6 - 5
May 17, 2026
TOR @ DET
4 - 1
May 16, 2026
TOR @ DET
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.692
OPS
▲
.720
152
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+26.5% more
Toronto: 4.2
vs
Detroit: 3.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.3% more
Toronto: 9.0
vs
Detroit: 6.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Detroit: 24.1%
Hits (L5)
+20.5% more
Detroit: 7.5
vs
Toronto: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.0
2
DET Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 6.2
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 9.0
6.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 9.2
10.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.2
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
54%
86-73
46%
74-87
54%
87-73
50%
80-80
ATS
64%
101-58
56%
90-71
57%
91-69
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
69-81-9
51%
80-76-5
46%
69-81-10
45%
70-85-5
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