BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
20-25 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
22-23 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Walker
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Walker | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 2.25
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
NATIONALS
0%
ORIOLES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
2
BALTIMORE
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
WSH @ BAL
6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026
WSH @ BAL
4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026
WSH @ BAL
1 - 3
May 17, 2026
BAL @ WSH
7 - 3
May 16, 2026
BAL @ WSH
3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Washington
WSH
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.711
OPS
▲
.744
199
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+97.0% more
Washington: 1.4
vs
Baltimore: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+36.7% more
Washington: 13.4
vs
Baltimore: 9.8
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Washington: 0.6
vs
Baltimore: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.8% more
Washington: 8.9
vs
Baltimore: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
2.0
3
WSH Score
3.0
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.8
13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.4
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.0
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 9.8
27.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.5 / 4.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BAL
WSH
BAL
ML
57%
92-69
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
ATS
58%
93-68
61%
95-60-1
57%
91-70
57%
90-68-1
TTL
50%
77-78-6
54%
81-70-5
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-75-6
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