Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Athletics SF @ ATH

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

18-27  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, May 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

23-21  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Trevor McDonald
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor McDonald

#72 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jonah Heim
STARTING PITCHER

Jonah Heim

#15 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor McDonald None-None 2.37 -- 6.2 5
Jonah Heim None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.37 ERA --
-- WHIP --
6.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
5 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
GIANTS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
16.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

84.1%

Athletics Cover

15.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

19.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

7.8%

ATH By 3-4 runs

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
SAN FRANCISCO
6
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
7
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 16.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 ATH @ SF 9 - 6
Jun 24, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 2
Jun 23, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 SF @ ATH 10 - 1
May 16, 2026 SF @ ATH 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .719
178
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +14.3% more
San Francisco: 3.1 vs Athletics: 2.6
Strikeouts (L5) +10.7% more
San Francisco: 7.7 vs Athletics: 6.8
Errors (L5) +43.0% more
Athletics: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Hits (L5) +25.4% more
Athletics: 9.6 vs San Francisco: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 10.0 6
ATH Score 6.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.7 6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 7.7 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 13.3 11.0 / 27.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.1 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
SF
ATH
SF
ML
59% 95-67
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
ATS
52% 84-78
62% 100-60
50% 81-80
52% 83-77
TTL
54% 84-73-5
55% 82-68-10
42% 66-90-5
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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