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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

21-22  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 16 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

17-28  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Ginkel None-None 3.50 -- 1.0 1
Juan Mejia None-None 4.09 -- 1.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.50 Ldr ERA 4.09
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
📊
ROCKIES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

69.1%

Rockies Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.4%

COL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ARIZONA
3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rockies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.720
OPS
▲ .739
166
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +31.8% more
Arizona: 8.8 vs Colorado: 6.0
Total Bases (L5) +14.3% more
Arizona: 12.6 vs Colorado: 10.8
Strikeouts (L5) +13.3% more
Arizona: 6.8 vs Colorado: 5.9
Walks (L5) +202.4% more
Colorado: 3.8 vs Arizona: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 5.0 2
COL Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.0 / 8.8 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 6.8 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 12.6 14.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.8 / 1.2 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60% 97-64
54% 87-74
55% 88-73
54% 86-74
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
56% 89-71
TTL
60% 93-62-6
52% 80-73-8
50% 77-78-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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