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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

19-26  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 16 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

26-18  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
George Soriano
STARTING PITCHER

George Soriano

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Noah Cameron None-None 5.40 -- 6.0 4
George Soriano None-None 3.66 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.40 ERA Ldr 3.66
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
ROYALS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 STL @ KC 12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026 STL @ KC 5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026 STL @ KC 6 - 14
May 17, 2026 KC @ STL 2 - 0
May 16, 2026 KC @ STL 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.718 ▲
OPS
.691
170 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +80.0% more
St. Louis: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +44.4% more
St. Louis: 15.4 vs Kansas City: 10.7
Hits (L5) +39.9% more
St. Louis: 10.1 vs Kansas City: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season) +4.2% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 2
STL Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.1 / 7.2 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 9.2 2.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 10.7 10.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.6 / 4.8 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
KC
STL
KC
ML
53% 85-74
55% 89-72
52% 84-77
56% 90-70
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 91-70
53% 85-76
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 68-81-10
58% 90-64-7
50% 76-75-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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