Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Athletics SF @ ATH

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

18-26  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 15 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

22-21  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Sam Hentges
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Hentges

#31 | Relief Pitcher
@
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Hentges None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Hogan Harris None-None 2.45 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
GIANTS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Athletics)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Athletics Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
6
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u10.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 ATH @ SF 9 - 6
Jun 24, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 2
Jun 23, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 SF @ ATH 10 - 1
May 16, 2026 SF @ ATH 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .719
178
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +65.0% more
Athletics: 1.2 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Hits (L5) +45.0% more
Athletics: 9.4 vs San Francisco: 6.5
Total Bases (L5) +41.6% more
Athletics: 15.6 vs San Francisco: 11.0
Home Runs (L5) +41.1% more
Athletics: 1.5 vs San Francisco: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.0 2
ATH Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 6.5 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 7.0 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 11.0 15.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
SF
ATH
SF
ML
59% 95-67
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
ATS
52% 84-78
62% 100-60
50% 81-80
52% 83-77
TTL
54% 84-73-5
55% 82-68-10
42% 66-90-5
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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