KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
19-25 | Road
4
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
25-18 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Cruz
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Cruz | None-None | 8.31 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 1.90 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
8.31
ERA
Ldr 1.90
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
ROYALS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
KC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
STL @ KC
12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026
STL @ KC
5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026
STL @ KC
6 - 14
May 17, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 0
May 16, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.718
▲
OPS
.691
170
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+25.2% more
St. Louis: 9.2
vs
Kansas City: 7.4
Home Runs (L5)
+20.0% more
St. Louis: 1.0
vs
Kansas City: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+18.2% more
St. Louis: 13.6
vs
Kansas City: 11.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.2% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.0
4
STL Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.4
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.2
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 11.5
19.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.6
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
KC
STL
KC
ML
53%
85-74
55%
89-72
52%
84-77
56%
90-70
ATS
56%
89-70
57%
91-70
53%
85-76
58%
93-67
TTL
46%
68-81-10
58%
90-64-7
50%
76-75-10
54%
83-70-7
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