TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
19-24 | Road
2
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
19-25 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kenley Jansen
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 3.04 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kenley Jansen | None-None | 3.97 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.04 Ldr
ERA
3.97
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
TIGERS
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
DET @ TOR
1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
DET @ TOR
10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026
DET @ TOR
6 - 5
May 17, 2026
TOR @ DET
4 - 1
May 16, 2026
TOR @ DET
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.692
OPS
▲
.720
152
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+56.0% more
Detroit: 0.8
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+22.1% more
Detroit: 12.5
vs
Toronto: 10.3
Home Runs (Season)
+19.1% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Hits (L5)
+13.4% more
Detroit: 7.7
vs
Toronto: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
2
DET Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 6.8
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 9.0
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 10.3
8.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.7
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
54%
86-73
46%
74-87
54%
87-73
50%
80-80
ATS
64%
101-58
56%
90-71
57%
91-69
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
69-81-9
51%
80-76-5
46%
69-81-10
45%
70-85-5
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