SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
25-18 | Road
2
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
22-23 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Ferrer
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.86 | -- | 1.1 | 4 |
| Jose Ferrer | None-None | 1.71 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.86 Ldr
ERA
1.71
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
MARINERS
100%
PADRES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
15.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
19.6%
SEA By 1-2 runs
10.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
9
SAN DIEGO
Seattle
6
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
San Diego
2
SAN DIEGO
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 15.0
D
Sim
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
SD @ SEA
8 - 3
May 16, 2026
SD @ SEA
7 - 4
May 15, 2026
SD @ SEA
2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026
SEA @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
SEA @ SD
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.925
▲
OPS
.693
4
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
San Diego: 0.8
vs
Seattle: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+23.2%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+18.4%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Seattle: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
9.0
2
SEA Score
6.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 6.2
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.2
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 9.3
8.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.7
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SD
SEA
SD
ML
50%
81-81
51%
85-83
52%
85-77
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
98-64
54%
91-77
59%
95-67
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
82-80-6
53%
81-71-10
54%
86-74-6
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