ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
20-22 | Road
9
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
17-27 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zach Agnos
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 5.91 | -- | 9.0 | 3 |
| Zach Agnos | None-None | 5.59 | -- | 4.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.91
ERA
Ldr 5.59
--
WHIP
--
9.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
ROCKIES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
COL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Colorado
7
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u11.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u11.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
ARI @ COL
12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026
ARI @ COL
5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
ARI @ COL
7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
COL @ ARI
6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
COL @ ARI
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.720
OPS
▲
.739
166
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.3% more
Arizona: 8.6
vs
Colorado: 6.3
Walks (L5)
+68.3% more
Colorado: 3.1
vs
Arizona: 1.9
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Colorado: 0.4
vs
Arizona: 0.0
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
Colorado: 0.7
vs
Arizona: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.0
9
COL Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.7
4.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.6
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 10.4
9.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.1 / 1.9
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60%
97-64
54%
87-74
55%
88-73
54%
86-74
ATS
60%
97-64
57%
91-70
52%
83-78
56%
89-71
TTL
60%
93-62-6
52%
80-73-8
50%
77-78-6
49%
73-77-9
Contextual Game News
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