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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

21-23  |  Road

11
FINAL
Fri, May 15 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

24-20  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gregory Soto
STARTING PITCHER

Gregory Soto

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 2.20 -- 1.0 1
Gregory Soto None-None 2.42 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.20 Ldr ERA 2.42
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
PHILLIES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

69.1%

Pirates Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

18.4%

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
PHILADELPHIA
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 PIT @ PHI 6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026 PIT @ PHI 6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026 PIT @ PHI 0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026 PIT @ PHI 11 - 7
May 17, 2026 PHI @ PIT 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.724
OPS
▲ .734
3
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +35.3% more
Philadelphia: 1.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +24.4% more
Philadelphia: 9.3 vs Pittsburgh: 7.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Home Runs (Season) +6100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.0 11
PIT Score 4.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.5 / 7.5 11.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.4 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 9.3 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 12.3 20.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.8 / 1.4 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
52% 82-77
59% 97-67
52% 85-78
49% 80-84
ATS
54% 86-73
65% 107-57
50% 81-82
51% 83-81
TTL
47% 72-81-6
57% 88-67-9
50% 79-78-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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