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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

20-24  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 15 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

21-23  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Josh Walker
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Walker

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andrew Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Alvarez

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Walker None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Andrew Alvarez None-None 2.45 -- 3.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
ORIOLES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

84.1%

Nationals Cover

15.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

19.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

7.8%

WSH By 3-4 runs

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
BALTIMORE
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 WSH @ BAL 6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 WSH @ BAL 4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026 WSH @ BAL 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 BAL @ WSH 7 - 3
May 16, 2026 BAL @ WSH 3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Washington WSH
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.711
OPS
▲ .744
199
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +96.0% more
Washington: 1.6 vs Baltimore: 0.6
Errors (L5) +50.0% more
Washington: 0.9 vs Baltimore: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +41.0% more
Washington: 15.1 vs Baltimore: 10.7
Runs per Game (Season) +13.7% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 7.0 2
WSH Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 7.2 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 7.9 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 10.7 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.2 / 4.6 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BAL
WSH
BAL
ML
57% 92-69
53% 83-73
54% 87-74
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 95-60-1
57% 91-70
57% 90-68-1
TTL
50% 77-78-6
54% 81-70-5
42% 65-90-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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