Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Athletics STL @ ATH

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

24-18  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, May 14 • 3:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

22-20  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Perkins
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Perkins

#50 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 2.57 -- 1.0 2
Jack Perkins None-None 4.76 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.57 Ldr ERA 4.76
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
CARDINALS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Athletics)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Athletics Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ST. LOUIS
6
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u10.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 STL @ ATH 5 - 4
May 13, 2026 STL @ ATH 2 - 6
May 12, 2026 STL @ ATH 6 - 4
Sep 3, 2025 ATH @ STL 1 - 5
Sep 2, 2025 ATH @ STL 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.691
OPS
▲ .719
167
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +80.0% more
Athletics: 1.3 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Athletics: 0.8 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +25.4% more
Athletics: 14.9 vs St. Louis: 11.9
Home Runs (Season) +16.2% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 5.0 5
ATH Score 6.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.2 / 9.3 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 8.1 4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 11.9 17.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.6 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
STL
ATH
STL
ML
59% 95-67
53% 85-74
54% 87-74
52% 84-77
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 89-70
50% 81-80
53% 85-76
TTL
54% 84-73-5
46% 68-81-10
42% 66-90-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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